Multi-Regime Common Cyclical Features

In this paper we consider the hypothesis that particular short-run co-movements indicationg that shocks have similar responses might only exist for a particular regime and not for the whole sample. A two-step procedure is set up to test and estimate the multi-regime common cyclical feature. This approach is illustrated by analyzing the stability of the McCallum''s (1994) monetary policy reaction function for Danish data.Economics ;

Granger Causality Testing in High-Dimensional VARs: a Post-Double-Selection Procedure

We develop an LM test for Granger causality in high-dimensional VAR models based on penalized least squares estimations. To obtain a test retaining the appropriate size after the variable selection done by the lasso, we propose a post-double-selection procedure to partial out effects of nuisance variables and establish its uniform asymptotic validity. We conduct an extensive set of Monte-Carlo simulations that show our tests perform well under different data generating processes, even without sparsity. We apply our testing procedure to find networks of volatility spillovers and we find evidence that causal relationships become clearer in high-dimensional compared to standard low-dimensional VARs